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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still