Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
