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Growing worries exist about the possibility of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a heated verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in last year that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. After a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it without sea access.

In 1998, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Latest Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief the army commander have directly stated ownership of Eritrean southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

In the face of continuous threats from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea describing it as "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a approach of retaking lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that attempts to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed completion events of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The director of staff section of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an discussion that the army was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle ensued, finishing with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their shared boundary, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders signed a declaration that the hostilities was concluded – a action that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

However diplomatic connections have since broken down again.